As I’ve mentioned here before, I’m not much of a poll watcher. I figure that every minute you spend looking at polls is a minute you’re not working on getting someone to actually vote. I think polls are good for determining if you’re in the game or not, but once you know that, the only thing that will tell you if you’re going to win or lose is the voters on election day.
It’s been clear for quite some time that with Prop 19 we’re in the game. In the final days, you have poll numbers jumping all over the place. So you have absurd situations like an LA Times blog proclaiming California’s Marijuana Legalization Effort Going Down In Flames In Latest Poll based on their own poll with a sample size not much larger than the margin of error. And then that post has a disclaimer:
Also see our newer post about how pot-legalization backers say their own data shows Prop. 19 winning.
When a single post contradicts itself regarding polling data, you have an idea of its volatility.
For the best analysis of poll numbers that I’ve seen, read Al Giordano (who has an excellent track record): I Have Seen the Future of US Politics & Its Name is Prop 19
A friend emailed me and asked me to give my predictions regarding Prop 19. Well, I hate doing that, but I also hate to say no, so I’ll give you… something. I’m going to hedge my bets, though, and give three entirely different predictions.
Scenario #1 Prop 19 supporters do an incredible job with their Get Out the Vote efforts, particularly motivating new voters, minority voters, and cell phone voters (those young people who no longer have a land line). Democrats, while unhappy with their own representatives, fear some of the extreme rhetoric they’ve seen from the far right, and come out in respectable numbers. Republicans, Social Conservatives, and Tea Partiers are motivated, but have some identity fractures. There are lines at the polling stations. Prop 19 wins 57-43.
Scenario #2 Young people and first-time voters stay home. The whole thing was too damned confusing what with having to register and figure out where to vote and it’s not like one vote’s going to make a difference anyway. Democrats stay home. What’s the use? They’re all worthless anyway. Social Conservatives come out in force seeing an opportunity to seize. Polling places are quiet. Prop 19 loses 37-63.
Scenario #3 Relatively good GOTV efforts by the Prop 19 supporters combine with a decent Democratic turnout. Motivated Republicans also have a decent showing. Average crowds at the polling places. Prop 19 ends up in a dead heat 50-50. After 3 recounts they are still unable to find a sufficient margin of victory and it goes to the courts. Without an Al Gore willing to step down, both sides declare victory. People start growing marijuana plots and carrying small amounts of pot. Cops continue arresting people. The courts get jammed as judges put all cases on hold pending State Supreme Court decisions on the election. The state has to rent storage facilities to store all the evidence for delayed trials…
No, I don’t have any answers.
Here’s what I know. The Get Out the Vote efforts are going to be the most crucial. And you can actually help with that by calling voters from your home wherever you live. Go to Just Say Now for more info.
And I like it. Good Job. =) Be Patriotic. Vote please.
Yes please be patriotic…vote for freedom…Vote Yes on prop 19 !!
This late in the game the polls don’t mean anything certain,especially if we don’t know the questions asked or the demographic make up of the polled,which so far as I know is still unpublished on the ones proclaiming that the “no’s” were ahead…..
Waiting with great expectations for the release of a new study with irrefutable proof that marijuana is the cause for babies being born nekkid.
Surely NIDA hasn’t spent those billions of tax dollars on harm studies of marijuana and not saved one more good bit of garbage to throw on America.
I wonder if we will ever,even after the prohibition of
marijuana ends,be able to get the total dollars spent on harm studies just for marijuana?
Just because inquisitive minds wanna know.
Your scenarios are it wins by a huge margin, it loses by an absurd margin, or it is exactly tied? It’s like you picked the least likely outcomes.
ac: exactly. Since I have no possible way of knowing exactly what will happen, any real attempt at prediction is useless. so I give you the extremes.
It passes by some adequate margin, the Commerce Clause raises its ugly head.
And finally gets cut off?
Steve, you’re obviously not a chess player!
Proposition 19 is a scam designed by a couple of rich businessmen in Oakland to make themselves more rich. Now people are starting to figure that out. It isn’t even a real ‘people’s initiative’, but a sad example of how money can be used to buy legislation.
Personally, I favor legalization. But when you look at the dark underside of Proposition 19, you’ll see that it is not only bad for the state’s economy but also for individual marijuana users.
An excellent website that explains what’s wrong with Prop 19 and where it came from is http://no-on19.com. They’re a group of pot users and even they don’t want 19.
Also, as of Oct 1, 2010, possessing an ounce of pot in California has ALREADY been decriminalized (no criminal charges, record or court). So who needs 19 anyway ? Other than big companies.
Right now you can wave an ounce in front of police and at worst they might give you a ticket.
It’s funny that most of the Anti-prop 19 articles have it where you have to register to leave comments. Anyways if Prop 19 passes I’m sure that the Bill HR 2943 will be taken out of file and be voted on in the House and Senate.
Decriminalization = a kinder, gentler prohibition. And it lasts until the next governor takes over. Talk to anyone affected, from New York how they enjoy being decriminalized.
Sorry Bob. No,you are wrong and I will continue to support Prop 19 with all its flaws.
But I hope you have another way of making a living lined up
after prohibition ends.
Anything that starts to end people going to jail and having their lives ruined is the right move.
I think the Republicans definitely have more motivated voters this time around, although I admit I don’t know much about California Republican enthusiasm.
But I’m also not sure that will be necessarily a bad thing this election. Tea Party Republicans have been preaching economics and limited government. Many of them are socially conservative as well, but a decent number of them would support prop 19 based on those merits.
my own poll consists of my neighbor who is a conservative, retired navy officer, ex-diplomat, defense contractor. according to him he has already voted yes. trust me, this guy would never touch pot in million years. yet he believes people should have a choice. i don’t think he voted for Tommy Chong, but nobody’s perfect.
Bob, you’re wrong, wrong, wrong and incorrect. Go troll somewhere else.
BTW: Vote for Tommy Chong and your vote may be disqualified. Elections boards routenely discard ballots marked with fictitious names, and do you want to give them the excuse to round file your vote? I’m not sayin’ it WILL happen, just that it may….
Also, as of Oct 1, 2010, possessing an ounce of pot in California has ALREADY been decriminalized (no criminal charges, record or court). So who needs 19 anyway ? Other than big companies.
Bob Or should I say clueless. Why do we need prop 19? Because the rest of the states need it , without one state taking the lead, this insane law WILL continue to ruin lives…oh…thats right..your one of the ” got mine” group that could care less about the rest of the country. Or your just a troll prohib…either way your clueless.
I posted this in other places, too:
Refer people who are against CA’s Prop 19 (and OR’s M-74) to this:
Vices are NOT crimes! Indulging in a vice is not an act worthy of anyone else’s attention, let alone incarceration! Do these people who support prohibition of some drugs call the cops on a neighbor who has a couple of beers during his backyard BBQ? Or on the housewives who get together for a coffee klatch? Or the retired couple who enjoy a cigarette on their porch? Or the neighbor kid who eats too much candy or drinks too many soft drinks? These acts are all vices, too, and they all affect the brain in ways that could be construed as a high or intoxication, some milder than others. What makes use of any so-called “illicit” drug any different? Some of the “illicit” drugs won’t get you anywhere near as wasted as a couple too many drinks of alcohol.
The other best argument is “My body, my choice!”, each of us own our own bodies, society does not own us and neither does the government (although those who have power in government seem to think they do). If we allow government to restrict what we may ingest in the way of drugs, they’ll soon be telling us that we may not ingest other substances like fats and sugars and salt . . . oh, wait . . . guess it’s too late for that one, eh?
Oh, and just by the way, prohibition is anti-freedom and therefore it is unAmerican!
I’ll just leave off reminding people who are not interested that decrim is a sham. Who would be interested in knowing that decrim was offered once and then snatched away in an eye blink and replaced with an EVEN MORE draconian scheme of punishment than had existed before the laws relaxed in many States?
I mean, just because it’s exponentially more difficult to make something legal into something illegal, than it is to enhance criminal penalties for something that is already illegal, doesn’t mean it bears mentioning.
I mean, no prohibitionist politician would be SO duplicitous as to sign a decriminalization law in order to prevent full scale legalization by citizen initiative? Especially when said politician knows that the decrim can be undone in a single session of the State legislature, and there ain’t bullpucky he can do to overturn the initiative..
I mean, if I told you about such a scheme, I would be ridiculed for even broaching the topic.
BTW: Duncan! I like the new handle, and your symbol; the mighty platypus, nature’s poster child for confusion! Excellent!
I’m sorry, but I don’t care if I can’t get arrested for possessing a small amount of cannabis in California. It isn’t enough. Growing is still a felony in that state. That’s right, despite your precious decrim, Bob, growing a plant is a felony in the state of California. Prop. 19 at least will make it so growing in a 25 square foot area is perfectly legal. It’s not prefect and future legislation will be required but for right now Prop. 19 is a good thing and punks like you shouldn’t be trying to screw the rest of over.
Hey, I’d like to float this….election tuesday I have one hour of schedualed office time, and my students are off doing practicum, communing with the chronically mentally ill. The rest of the day I’ll be home, glued to my TV and comfuser watching the returns on prop 19. I’m just guessin alot of the regulars like Clay, Duncan, Ezrydn and Allan and Just Me will be doing the same….
Why don’t we have a watch party here on Pete’s couch, BYOP (bring yer own pot). We could have a best quip contest and get points for finding the first media outlet to call the results wrong. Best costume catagory?
Sounds great, darkcycle. I’ll keep an election thread open that day for all of you to relax and chat.
RELAX?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
I have to agree Pete, relaxing isnt what many of us are able to do…this is like trying to chew on 120 VAC line.
darkcycle, i didn’t consider that, luckily i haven’t filled out my ballot yet.
darkcycle, Tommy Chong is neither a fictitious name, nor is he ineligible to serve as Governor of California because he is in fact a resident of California. I’d sure like to see some evidence that the nonsense you’re claiming is true.
Since the first time I voted the Libertarians have recommended that those who want to vote a ‘straight’ Libertarian ticket write in “Libertarian” in the majority of races which have no Libertarian nominee.
So I’m 50 years old, have been writing in “Libertarian” for 30 years, and have never heard that nonsense about ballots being rejected because those counting the ballots did not like the name written in. Perhaps you have some kind of evidence that isn’t just a personal delusion of yours?
Just as point in fact the 2008 elections were the last “straight” Libertarian ticket I’ll ever vote. I’d go back and undo every Libertarian vote I’ve ever tendered if I could, after watching the economic fiasco that unfolded in this country in 2008, and realizing how the Libertarians would have just flushed our economy down the toilet. There’s no doubt this country would be in the 2nd Great Depression were it up to the Libertarians. I was on the edge on Election day in 2008 but Bob Barr’s lobbying of Congress to remove the roadblock to allowing I-59 to be implemented in DC, coupled with the fact that Mr. Obama was a shoo-in for the electoral votes tipped my decision. We still hadn’t seen the worst of the economic fiasco on Election day 2008 either. So this year I’m in MD and it’s Bob Erlich that’s getting my vote for Governor because he worked pretty hard to get medical cannabis passed back in 2003 (or was it 2004?) in his previous stint as MD’s Governor.
Hey, how about this? A pothead is going to be pitching in the World Series this year. Who’da thunk it?
Here he is, the dope smoking, avatar reading, living in the common unwashed hippie marxist two consecutive Cy Young awards winning and now world series starting pitcher:
I suppose it’s beyond silly to hope he might make a public endorsement of Prop 19. If he does, we need to remember it’s going to cost him a bucket of money.
Two reasons to vote for Prop 19. (1)Prop 19 will set a precedent for other states to follow. Prop 19 is just another baby step in a long procession of baby steps aimed at full legalization of marijuana. (2)Prop 19 allows possession of one ounce of marijuana but more importantly allows for a place to purchase that one ounce legally. The latest bill decriminalizing one ounce of marijuana does not give the user a legal outlet to purchase that one ounce or protect the seller from selling that one ounce.
Jesus said, Whatsoever ye would that men should do to you, do ye even so to them. (Matthew 7:12).
I know I would not want my child sent to jail with the sexual predators, or my aging parents to have their house confiscated and sold by the police, over a little marijuana.
We can change the world when we vote.
This prop is poorly written. Were more free with the way things are now. You will go to jail for 6 months and a 1000$ fine if you pass a joint to someone under 21 it’s not like that now. Most people voting yes didn’t even read the propition an ignernet vote worst than no vote at all. Weed is so good today because it was illegal for so long. And where going to take that away from the people that breed and grow new canibus strains and give the profits to a couple of rich greedy businessmen in Oakland Ca. Please let’s save weed. Vote no on prop 19. Thanks
No on 19’s comment oddly reminds me of the views of some slaves who opposed emancipation. Freedom is hard, and who knows what we might have to deal with. Master takes care of us and only beats us sometimes, and that’s usually when we do something stupid.
Maybe I’m off base, here, but it certainly jogged a recollection of what actually happened historically.
Oh, and big points for irony in this sentence:
Finally, what a telling statement:
I sometimes forget how narrow and narcissistic a view some people have. I’ve spent so much time reporting the vast destruction of prohibition that I’m flabbergasted when I run up against someone whose only thought is that prohibition makes weed taste better.
19 does set a precedent. I like a lot of these comments on here. Some are just plain dumb though, especially from no on 19. My God, learn to spell. PLEASE. It’s painful to read your stuff. But I digress! This is a civil liberties issue. No one has the right to tell anyone what they can and can not put in their body. Plain and simple. No one should EVER go to jail simply for imbibing in any substance. I will be voting YES on 19!
Pingback: Prop 19 Prognostications - WeedTRACKER
Prop 19 polling is interesting. I’m sure this has been mentioned, but there is one factor that is paramount: the attitude of the person being polled. A portion of those who support legalization might, at times, be reluctant responders thinking it was indiscreet to say yes. This might knock off 3-5% of the yes responses. That figure is pure speculation but there should be no doubt that it’s easier for opponents to answer no to pollsters than it is for proponents to just say yes.
One scenario left out of this informative article is this: Prop 19 passes 49% to 41%. That means just one thing. The two years of new voters coming online before 2012 will push it over the top in that election.
If anyone really believes what this site proclaims http://no-on19.com/ they are completely blind to the whole matter. The people who made that site are obviously drug dealers taking advantage of current medicinal marijuana laws for security to make a profit. It would be unreal to actually even consider that.
I disagree with proposition 19.Here’s why…they want to trust legislators with the ability to tax them? I guess people love to be taxed.
California legislators are incompetent at handling revenues.The state is bankrupt.
But what escapes me is that people are ignoring INDUSTRIAL HEMP.
I could care less about people smoking their weed.
It’s a shame that all the babies are crying about smoking their pottie wottie when Industrial Hemp would break the back of the oil companies,and provide unlimited RENEWABLE green,earth friendly manufacturing.
Hemp fuels are beneficial to the earth if spilled and nonpolluting.Building materials,foods,textiles and more!
It would be a great day if your dope was “legal”so Industrial Hemp would then be legal.
I guess people love the oil companies,carcinogenic toxic fuels,and chopping down trees,and BEING TAXED.
Industrial Hemp means JOBS! It is far more relevant than pot heads getting to suck on their pacifiers.
People are crazy.If “pot”is legal Industrial Hemp is too!
Thats what you should be fighting for.
Go to http://hempusa.org and look at just a few of the beneficial health products(a fraction of Industrial Hemp applications) that have to be imported because hemp LOOKS like pot.
If the government has anything to do with your pot it is going to probably be genetically modified by Monsanto before you can have it! Haha
But the whole prison/drug testing/counseling/enforcement/money laundering,and legal profession racket is very very lucrative,and heavily privatized with much foreign investment involved.
Taxing your weed pales in comparison doesn’t even come close to the loot that the psychopathic “legal” crime creator/fighter syndicate makes.
I think it’s safe to say Prop 19 will fail.
Outside of the prohibition profiteers,it would mske Industrial Hemp legal and that would break up the oil monopoly and various other resource rapers like logging,or textiles not having to be imported.
America and the world can begin to MANUFCTURE something but it would be too big of a game changer because all the players would change too drastically.
Dream on you pot heads ! IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN !
BAD HIPPIE DIPPIE! NO POT for U .It obviously makes you stupid.Your arguments are stupid.You can make just about ANYTHING from hemp.A dang weed anyone could grow.But you want to sMoKe it and thats all you ppl cry about.
What’s so stinking hard about not getting people under 21 high? That’s called a minor inconvenience, not a miscarriage of justice. I especially like the one where the know nothing potheads recommend that 20 year olds should wait until they’re 22 to be legal by voting against Prop 19 because otherwise they won’t be legal until their 21. Christ on a crutch, idiocy like that makes it arguable that cannabis does cause irreparable brain damage and loss of touch with reality.
Do you clowns really think that someone’s going to put up a couple of million bucks to put a less restrictive ballot on the measure if Prop 19 is defeated? Stupidity like that is just stunningly delusional.
One of the best things about Prop 19 is the mandatory jail term for selling to underaged people. The know nothings post a bunch of standard issue horseshit and then play the “what about the chilled wrens” card. I very much am amused to have been given the opportunity to ask them why they want lesser penalties and no jail for those who would sell to minors. I don’t think they have been able to grok this yet and so far are just ignoring the question. It does take a lot of effort for a know nothing to figure out points that aren’t covered in hysterical rhetoric school.
Hey no on 19, does Miss Calvina use lube? Perhaps that’s reserved for the know nothing potheads who truly enjoy pain? I can just picture an anti-19 pothead, hands flexi-cuffed behind his back, pony bit gag in his mouth, Ms. Calvina is on top wearing a strap on harness with a ridiculously large dildo, riding crop in hand and cackling who’s yore daddy? who’s yore daddy??!?? Does she save the pony tail butt plug for special occasions? Oh wow, here’s one made from real horse hair, only $74!:
darkcycle a few weeks ago I was having a conversation with a know nothing and he pointed out to me that I was in denial. I really didn’t know what he meant, but he explained to me that if you say something about your life isn’t true, then that is proof that it is. Since I’ve denied repeatedly that I’m a duck billed platypus, that proved that I am indeed a duck billed platypus. For my next project I’m going to insist that there are no women would ever want to see me naked and repeatedly have perverted and kinky sex with me all night long. Where do I find all the duck billed platypus chicks? Is ‘platypi’ or ‘platypussies’ the correct plural of platypus? Well I’ll be darned, both are correct.
Everybody should get out and vote YES to proposition 19, not only for the sake of California, but to promote a worldwide change. Prohibition has costed so many lives and so much money, without acuieving anything.
Please get out and vote YES to prop 19 🙂
Have you been in this country long? Legislators don’t need a referendum to tax people or items. They’ll do it anyway. And Prop 19 doesn’t specify a tax. It just says that taxing is preferable to arresting.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I agree with you about hemp. But the best route to getting industrial hemp is to pass Prop 19. There’s already been a state that’s passed industrial hemp (North Dakota), but nobody’s growing it there. Why? Because the feds could seize your entire farm. It’s a lot tougher for the feds to go after recreational marijuana users and sellers if the state legalizes that. Once states start legalizing recreational marijuana (and that means starting with Prop 19), then the feds will have no reason to block industrial hemp any longer.
Well all I see and hear about Proposition 19 is babies whining about getting “high”.
That’s all the media is focusing on,and the average dork in the street thinks it’s about gEtTiNg HiGh.
Rudolph Diesel invented the diesel engine to run on agricultural waste,and inedible seed oils.
It took the oil companies 14 years after Rudolph Diesel mysteriously fell off an ocean liner and died to configure the diesel to run on toxic petrochemicals.
It would be the end of the oil companies ability to
poison the enviroment like in the Gulf Of Mexico,and the Niger Delta.
But they have you all focused on GeTtinG HiGh,and the suckers go for the bait.
That’s why Proposition 19 will be defeated.
It makes me sick to look at all te comments on the web about babies wanting their weed ba-ba bong.
Thanks pot heads for screwing up our chance to escape the grip of poison fuels,and decimating forests.
I guess people are more worried about gettin’ HIGH than having a real job.
zammie, I’d like to point out that the most significant roadblock to getting hemp back in the farmer’s fields is the prohibition of recreational cannabis for adults. You have to understand that the average LEO is an idiot and can’t tell the difference between horse mint and cannabis. Well I must say the similarities are stunning. http://tinyurl.com/isthiscannabis It seems tomato plants also look remarkably similar to cannabis to the prohibitionists. I used to think they were just making a convenient excuse to keep hemp illegal but within recent memory have realized that they really are that stupid.http://tinyurl.com/2e6x573
That link will take you to a story about how a guard at the jail mistook a cannabis plant for a tomato plant. It’s one for the ‘how can this person still be alive and in spite of being that stupid’ file. Mr. Darwin just isn’t doing his job correctly.
Prop 19 will have no direct impact on my life because I’m on the east coast. But you are mistaken in the thought that it’s the people who want to get high that make up the cohort of know nothing potheads. No, these know nothings want to keep it illegal, some because they make money off the black market and have such low self esteem that they can’t conceive of how to make a profit in the wake of the passage of Prop 19. Some because they regard cannabis as some kind of object of worship, an almost cultish fervor of belief that cannabis can’t be treated like any other commodity and for some queer reason believe that no one should be able to make a living with it. These people have a particular concern with Richard Lee’s pocketbook and seem to think it’s in their better interests to foil any if not all of Mr. Lee’s money making ventures. Do they think that they’ll become successes if they somehow managed to make Mr. Lee a poor man? Hogwash. Somebody is going to make a ton of money and I just don’t see why it shouldn’t be Mr. Lee. These know nothing potheads are total fucking small minded ingrates. Not only do these fucking assholes not give Mr. Lee the credit he is due, these dirtballs are actively trying to discredit his efforts. If you believe that you really need to remember that there’s no such thing as tin foil readily available to consumers, and that aluminum not only doesn’t block the alien’s transmissions, it magnifies them. Sad to say I’ve seen a number of people ruin their lives by mistaking aluminum foil and tin foil. But Mr. Lee will never need to sleep outside or miss a meal, because I owe him a deep debt of gratitude. I’ve been waiting 33 years for the day to come. You can go fuck yourself if you think it’s not important, or that the measure should fail. Well, actually go hop in bed with Pink’s mother. I hear she’s got a wicked strap on she uses to punk idiot potheads that are campaigning against Prop 19.
What you guys don’t think she looks like Pink’s mother?
Pink’s mother: http://www.shoprockamerica.com/image.php?productid=4812
The age limit of 21 is important. It’s one part that gives significant leverage because the vast majority of the US Voters believe in age limits. That cohort includes yours truly. Certain things are for adults only. I learned that at a very young age.
A lot of us know we can just quintuple production to obtain the same revenue, some of us actually believe we’ll make a ton of money if allowed to put our talents to use. This is what I see in the future for that growers and vendors that decide to adapt to our new way of life:
The correct response from a civilized person when they become aware that someone has spent a million and a half dollars of his own money to make your life better is ‘thank you’. Did your mother teach you to be that rude and ignorant? No, I’ll bet she thinks herself a worthless loser for spawning someone like yourself. I’m sure that mama tried.
Another thing that works against hemp is the fact that the lack of hemp availability does not cost the taxpayers a dime and may even supply higher revenues. The market where industrial hemp would get its revenue are all currently supplied by legitimate, tax paying vendors using other products. While we can argue that hemp is better for the environment than cotton we can’t argue that people are already buying clothes made of cotton. This isn’t the situation in the black market cannabis distribution chain as damn near 100% of revenue from sales of recreational cannabis flows into the hands of criminals.
For the last year or so I’ve been trying to figure out how to obtain seeds from a high CBD/low THC plant because I believe that almost all of the medical benefits from cannabis are cannabinoids other than THC. I can order high THC varieties at the drop of a hat and have them in hand in less than 2 weeks. I haven’t been able to find seeds with high CBD/Low THC (read hemp) because the prohibitionist laws have so perverted the market so. They have managed to prevent people from growing rope in the US. I just don’t understand why some people can look at the situation and not see this perversion when it’s so glaringly obvious? We can’t grow rope but we can sure grow recreational cannabis. It makes no sense. No sense at all.
The Alcohol Industry, Big Tobacco, the Mexican Drug Cartels, your local dope dealer, Diane Feinstein and L.A Sheriff Lee ‘The Fascist’ Baca all agree: No on Prop 19.
You’re in good company, Diane and Lee. It’s no small wonder people have lost respect for our politicians and law enforcement officials.