They’re not even trying to be optimistic about it.
But U.S. law enforcement officials and analysts caution that even with the unprecedented level of anti-drug aid to Mexico, violence could actually rise as drug cartels respond forcefully to increased U.S. and Mexican pressure.
One U.S. law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that 2008 “may prove to be even deadlier. We expect drug traffickers to respond aggressively to combined U.S. and Mexican actions and pressure.”
Growing U.S.-Mexico cooperation will force “drug cartels to increase the political ante by increasing the level of violence,” said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, a political consultant with Washington-based Peschard-Sverdrup & Associates. […]
“When pressure on them [drug traffickers] increases or continues from law enforcement officials, the usual response is to kick up the violence, especially directed at government and law enforcement officials, which might explain why deaths of law enforcement officials are up,” said a senior U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity.
Good thing we’re supporting an effective approach in Mexico.
Still, Arturo Yaöez, who trains detectives for the Mexico City government and has worked in federal law enforcement, questioned whether Mr. Calder÷n’s counter-narcotics strategy is really working.
“Where are the results, the numbers … ? Information is thin,” he said. The influence of organized crime “is growing across Mexico. How exactly are we winning?”
Plan Mexico is a proposal developed in secret to spend billions of dollars ratcheting up the drug war in Mexico — a proposal without the support of Congress, that generates strong misgivings in the people of Mexico regarding their sovereignty, and will probably increase the violence in Mexico without actually accomplishing anything. What’s not to like?