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January 2008
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Drug Czar Watch

I’m keeping an eye on the Drug Czar’s “blog” ’cause I just want to see how he handles this one:

MIAMI — U.S.-directed seizures and disruptions of cocaine shipments from Latin America dropped sharply in 2007 from the year before, reflecting in part a successful shift in tactics by drug traffickers to avoid detection at sea, senior American officials disclosed Monday in releasing new figures.

Conventional wisdom says that he’ll take the “everything proves I’m right” road. You know, if seizures are up, that proves the war is working and we need to press our advantage by more funding; if seizures are down that proves the war is working, but we need to invest more to keep up with the bad guys.
Second possibility: he’s put so much face into his recent push about how well the Colombian and Mexican interdiction is working that he may just pretend this news doesn’t exist. That means he has to avoid the press as well.
Third possibility: a convoluted mix of explanations that say everything is exactly the way he expected it. The war is working in Colombia and Mexico, prices are still up and supply is still down and the lower level of interdiction is a sign that the traffickers have run out of drugs.
Place your bets.
Update: So far, Option 2 appears to be winning, though it’s still too early to call it.

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